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Unique heat pump situation, insight appreciated

I live in a duplex from 1886.
I own it, and live in the second and third levels.
The second level has forced air.
Since the air was added, it has been renovated, and it leaves the majority of duct work in stupid spots.
We also do not have enough ducts to reasonably heat the house.
The system blows almost non stop during the winter, and the house stays cool.
We also have a very inefficient 90s central air unit that can't keep up with cooling at all.
The third floor of our house was created about 20 years ago.
It is run off electric baseboard heat and window AC units.
My bedroom takes hours to cool, as we don't have a suitable window so the previous homeowner made a box to fit the AC into the wall and to blow the exhaust outside.
Finally, the basement is halfway exposed, and while it stays cool in summer it is cold in winter.
The house was clearly designed for wood burning stoves to pump out tons of heat and that's it.
Anyway, I have been looking at quotes to redo this with heat pumps.
The thought right now is to split the house into two, replacing half the rooms and the furnace this year, and then doing the other half next year.
I had one quote that I liked, except when I asked the installer about replacing the gas furnace with a heat pump coil and a heating element for really cold days, he said that was a bad idea because it would cost us way more to run the system in the winter.
I figure it wouldn't be that nuts, and I'm willing to pay a bunch more to get heat where it makes sense.
Oh, and the last oddity, the furnace exhaust is screwed, and it will be the last natural gas thing I have, so if I don't replace it with natural gas, I will save $4k on chimney repairs to exhaust it there, and the natural gas connection fees from the power company all year.
In the last few years, we've only had a few days that would be cold enough to need the backup heat for, and if that happens, that's fine.
Otherwise, we'd be mostly on heat pump, and saving on our rooms that would have the baseboard heat as backups.
With that all.
Is this crazy? Am I looking at bills hundreds of dollars more expensive in winter? Final thing to add - our house is well insulated and has new windows.
I think it's worth it from the standpoint of comfort and the new system will balance costs of the second floor being a bit higher but the third being lower cost to heat, but if I switch and it isn't or I find we're spending hundreds more a year in heating, either way we won't be too happy.
Any insight would be hugely appreciated.
I've been wrestling with this for a month now.
Question from user RevolutionaryAd9302 at heatpumps at reddit.
It sounds like you're facing some unique challenges with heating and cooling in your historic duplex, and your desire to upgrade to heat pumps is a reasonable consideration.
Let's break down some of the key points you mentioned:
Inefficient Ductwork: If your current forced air system has inefficient ductwork and doesn't adequately heat your home, replacing it with a heat pump system can be a good idea.
Heat pumps are highly efficient and can provide both heating and cooling.
High Heating Bills: Your concern about higher winter heating bills with a heat pump system is valid, especially in very cold climates.
Heat pumps are most efficient in moderate climates and may require a backup heating source (like electric heating elements) when temperatures drop significantly.
However, advancements in heat pump technology, including variable-speed compressors and improved insulation, have made them more efficient in colder climates.
Heat Pump with Electric Heating Element: Using a heat pump with a heating element as a backup is a common setup.
It can provide efficient heating most of the time and switch to the heating element during extreme cold.
The efficiency and cost-effectiveness of this setup will depend on your climate, the heat pump's performance, and the cost of electricity compared to natural gas.
Reducing Natural Gas Costs: If you're looking to reduce your reliance on natural gas and save on chimney repairs and connection fees, transitioning to an electric heat pump can be a viable option.
However, you should calculate the potential cost savings and compare them to the cost of electricity in your area.
Well-Insulated House with New Windows: Your well-insulated home with new windows is a significant advantage.
It means your heat pump system will work more efficiently, as it won't have to compensate for heat loss through drafts and poor insulation.
Zoning: When upgrading to a heat pump system, consider zoning your home.
This allows you to control the heating and cooling of different areas independently, optimizing comfort and energy efficiency.
Professional Assessment: It's crucial to have a professional HVAC technician assess your specific situation.
They can perform a heat load calculation to determine the right-sized system for your home and provide you with more accurate cost estimates.
Answer from user at heatpumps at reddit.
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